Prediction and prevention of disproportionally dominant agents in complex networks

SC Lera, A Pentland, D Sornette - Proceedings of the …, 2020 - National Acad Sciences
We develop an early warning system and subsequent optimal intervention policy to avoid
the formation of disproportional dominance (“winner takes all,” WTA) in growing complex …

Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015

SC Lera, D Sornette - Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016 - Elsevier
Krugman (1991)'s target zone model for exchange rate dynamics has become the reference
of a large part of this literature. Despite its simplicity and elegance, empirical evidence has …

Time of a New Antitrust Era: Refocusing Antitrust Law to Invigorate Competition in the 21st Century

RZ Mahari, SC Lera, A Pentland - Stan. Computational Antitrust, 2021 - HeinOnline
US antitrust laws have repeatedly responded to the changing needs of the nation's economy.
As the marketplace grows ever more data-driven, we find ourselves at yet another critical …

An explicit mapping of currency target zone models to option prices

SC Lera, D Sornette - International Review of Finance, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Currency target zones have been under scrutiny for the past three decades, which led to the
development of two broad classes of quantitative models: Phenomenological ones that …

[HTML][HTML] Non-normal interactions create socio-economic bubbles

D Sornette, SC Lera, J Lin, K Wu - Communications Physics, 2023 - nature.com
In social networks, bursts of activity often result from the imitative behavior between
interacting agents. The Ising model, along with its variants in the social sciences, serves as a …

Gross domestic product growth rates as confined Lévy flights: Towards a unifying theory of economic growth rate fluctuations

SC Lera, D Sornette - Physical Review E, 2018 - APS
A model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic
levels is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also …

Causal Analysis of Stakeholder Interdependencies in 10-K Reports

I Luo, M Frank, SC Lera - Available at SSRN 4483287, 2023 - papers.ssrn.com
With rising political debates about the role of environmental, social, and corporate governance
(ESG), companies must rethink their prioritization of different stakeholder groups. We thus …

[HTML][HTML] Quantification of the evolution of firm size distributions due to mergers and acquisitions

SC Lera, D Sornette - PloS one, 2017 - journals.plos.org
The distribution of firm sizes is known to be heavy tailed. In order to account for this stylized
fact, previous economic models have focused mainly on growth through investments in a …

[HTML][HTML] Uncovering feature interdependencies in high-noise environments with stepwise lookahead decision forests

D Donick, SC Lera - Scientific Reports, 2021 - nature.com
Conventionally, random forests are built from “greedy” decision trees which each consider
only one split at a time during their construction. The sub-optimality of greedy implementation …

Modeling Investor Attention with News Hypergraphs

SC Lera, Y Leng - Available at SSRN 4708802, 2024 - papers.ssrn.com
We introduce a hypergraph-based approach to analyze information flow and investor attention
transfers through news outlets in financial markets. Extending traditional graph models …